VIS Rating presents our flash update on April export data following Trump's 90-day tariff pause
On July 2, 2025, U.S President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam via social media, just days before the July 9 deadline when the previously paused 46% tariffs were set to resume. Under the announcement, Vietnamese exports to the U.S. will face a 20% tariff, while goods deemed transshipped from third countries—mainly China—will be taxed at 40%. In return, Vietnam will eliminate tariffs on selected U.S. exports, including large-engine vehicles, agricultural products, and premium consumer goods. As of now, the Vietnamese government has not officially confirmed these terms.
🔹 “If implemented as Trump’s announcement, the deal offers short-term relief for Vietnamese exporters by avoiding the 46% tariff hike. However, the new 20% rate still marks a significant increase from the current 10%, likely squeezing margins and reducing demand in key export sectors such as textiles, footwear, seafood, and machinery. The automotive sector will face stronger competition from U.S. imports if the tariff is reduced to 0%,” – Nguyen Dinh Duy, CFA – Director-Senior Analyst, VIS Rating
🔹 “The 40% tariff on transshipped goods introduces risks for Chinese manufacturers and Vietnam-based industrial park developers who rely on Chinese investment.
Foreign-invested firms using Chinese inputs may also face increased scrutiny and operational headwinds.” – Bach Hoang Anh, CPA (Aust.) – Associate Analyst, VIS Rating
🔹 Trump’s announcement lacks clarity regarding the specific goods subject to the proposed 20% tariff, potential exemptions, the definition and enforcement of transshipment rules, and the timeline for implementation.
The scope of affected products, potential exemptions—particularly for electronics and steel—and the criteria for transshipment enforcement remain undefined. This ambiguity is especially concerning for non-Chinese foreign-invested firms sourcing inputs from China. No timeline has been set for negotiations or implementation.
Furthermore, the schedule for negotiating and finalizing these terms has not been defined. If recent U.S. trade deals with the UK and China are any guide, final terms may take months to materialize.
“Until more specifics emerge, the full impact of the U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement remains uncertain,” – Nguyen Dinh Duy, CFA – Director-Senior Analyst, VIS Rating
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