VIS Rating presents our flash update on April export data following Trump's 90-day tariff pause
In April 2025, Vietnam’s total export value increased sharply by approximately 20% year-over-year (YoY) compared to the growth rate of 10.5% YoY in the first 3 months of 2025. The surge in growth of exports in April was mainly contributed by the expansion in the US market (35% YoY) compared to 22% YoY in Q1 2025. Among the key products exported to the US, FDI sectors’ exports have a higher increase in April 2025, including electronics (+57% YoY), machinery (+38% YoY), while domestic businesses’ key products have lower growth rate, including textiles (+23% YoY), fishery products (+15% YoY), and wooden furniture (+4%).
We believe that the 90-day suspension of the 46% reciprocal tariffs — temporarily replaced by a 10% tariff effective April 10th — prompted front-loading by U.S. buyers, resulting in a 25% increase in Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. in the second half of April 2025 compared to the first half. “However, we expect this front-loading effect to taper off soon in Q2 2025, once US buyers have accumulated sufficient inventory. In addition, ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China are showing signs of progress will pave the way for a resurgence of Chinese exports to the U.S. and heighten competition for Vietnam’s exports in upcoming months.” – Nguyen Ly Thanh Luong, CFA, ACCA, FMVA – Lead Analyst, VIS Rating.
Exhibit 1: Export from Vietnam to the US increased substantially in April 2025, with double-digit growth in most categories
Source: Vietnam Customs, VIS Rating
Among the key export categories, electronics have benefited from front-loading by US importers, as they are exempted from reciprocal tariffs. In contrast, discretionary products – such as wooden furniture – have seen slower growth following the tariff announcement, as consumers have less incentive to front-load these items. With 55% of exports depending on the US market, we view the wooden products industry’s target of 18 billion USD (+10% YoY) for 2025 as very challenging under the current tariff pressures.
"The EBITDA margin of manufacturers of products, including textiles, wooden products, and fisheries, is around 10–15%, which will not be enough to cover tariffs higher than 10% and rising logistics costs due to US-imposed entrance fees for non-US-built carriers. Listed companies with high US exposure like Song Hong Garment (textile), Phu Tai (wooden products), and Vinh Hoan Corp (fishery) indicated at recent AGMs that the US market will be no longer profitable if higher tariff is applied" - Nguyen Dinh Duy, CFA – Director, Senior Analyst – VIS Rating.
Exhibit 2: Average EBITDA margin of companies mainly exporting to the US slightly above the 10% baseline
Source: Company data, VIS Rating
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