2025 Credit Outlook | Securities credit fundamentals improve modestly from prior year

VIS Rating - An Affiliate of Moody's presents our Credit Outlook for 2025 – Vietnam Banks

Securities Sector 2025 Credit Outlook:

☑️ In 2025, we expect the credit fundamentals for Vietnam securities firms will improve modestly from prior year, driven primarily by stronger profits from a pick-up in brokerage activity and margin lending.

☑️ We expect investor sentiment in 2025 will be buoyed by robust economic growth and improvements in the financial health of corporates in general. Ongoing efforts to enhance the market infrastructure will help to attract investors to the domestic equity and bond markets. Declining corporate bond defaults will help stabilize asset risks, even as firms increase their investment portfolios. Firms will maintain stable leverage and liquidity through ongoing efforts to raise new capital to support business growth.

Improving business growth prospects for securities firms in 2025

Source: VIS Rating

Private bank-affiliated firms will lead the sector in profit growth by leveraging  banks’ customer base and continued capital support

Source: Company data, VIS Rating

“We expect sector returns on average assets to rise to 5.3%-5.5% in 2025, driven by higher income from margin lending and bond investments.

Private bank-affiliated firms, in particular, will lead the sector in profit growth by leveraging banks' customer bases and continued capital support, given their growing importance to banks’ business strategy. As bond issuance picks up in 2025, bond investment and advisory fees will grow, supported by banks’ strong customer relationships and extensive distribution networks,” – Phan Thi Van Anh, MSc – Director – Senior Analyst, VIS Rating.

Sector asset risk will stabilize despite higher exposures to corporate bond investments

Source: Company data, VIS Rating

Sector leverage will moderate through continuous new capital injections

Source: Company data, VIS Rating

“Despite higher corporate bond exposures, we expect sector asset risk to stabilize due to lower bond defaults and higher recovery rates, driven by improved issuers’ debt serviceability from strong business conditions.

Leverage will moderate through continuous new capital injections, coupled with limited refinancing risks as firms maintain good access to a variety of funding sources,” – Nguyen Ha My, CFA – Associate Analyst, VIS Rating.

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