Residential Real Estate Sector – 2026 Outlook
Topic · Sector Comment · 04/05/2026
Research Sector Comment Residential Real Estate

Residential Real Estate Sector – 2026 Outlook

Tighter bank financing in 2026 will drive increasing divergence in the housing supply mix, funding structure, and credit profile of developers

KH
Ratings & Research Department
04/05/2026
PDF · 318.4 KB

In 2025, listed developers reported strong sales and profitability, significantly improving their liquidity. Looking ahead, new policy measures will increasingly motivate affordable housing development and improve market transparency. Sharply higher mortgage rates alongside elevated property prices, compounded by a wave of new supply, will weigh on homebuyer demand. With bank credit growth tightening under SBV’s direction, developers are expected to rely more on bond issuance, equity raising, and M&A to meet funding needs. As a result, credit profiles will diverge further as large developers with strong handover pipelines should remain resilient, while those facing ongoing legal issues or deeply entangled in hospitality projects will continue to face liquidity pressures in 2026.

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